Commercial Real Estate in Poland: Investors Are Cautious, but the Market Is Growing

Commercial real estate in Poland and across Europe is going through a period of selective demand: there is capital in the market, but investors weigh every step carefully. Geopolitical instability, rising interest rates in the eurozone and the US, and competition from other asset classes are making market participants slow down. Nevertheless, the Polish market — including Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław and Gdańsk — remains one of the most attractive destinations in Central and Eastern Europe.

Key fact: Commercial property transactions in CEE grew 34% year-on-year in 2026 — Poland attracted EUR 565 million in the residential segment alone.

According to preliminary data from the consultancy Savills, commercial real estate investment in Europe in the first three quarters of 2026 totalled EUR 156 billion — 4% more than a year earlier. EUR 46 billion was invested in the third quarter alone. The leading segment is residential rental property (living), which accounts for more than 30% of the total. Savills experts forecast that full-year 2026 volume will reach EUR 250 billion and approach EUR 300 billion by 2028.

What is the situation with commercial real estate investment in Europe?

The CEE region (Central and Eastern Europe) recorded 34% growth in investment over the first three quarters of 2026. The Nordic countries gained 25% and Southern Europe 20%. Against this background, Western European markets fell by 5%, and the three leading ones — the UK, Germany and France — lost 8%. According to Savills, geopolitical uncertainty remains the main factor holding back Western European capital.

What did the international Expo Real 2026 fair show?

At the largest industry fair, Expo Real in Munich — the key event for commercial real estate investors — experts noted “cautious optimism”. Investors are ready to invest, but with more in-depth risk analysis and longer decision-making processes.

• Capital is active but selective: the key criteria are asset quality, predictable income and access to financing.
• Residential rental (PRS), logistics and warehouses attract the most interest.
• Sellers are gradually revising their price expectations, which is bringing the two sides closer.
• Banks are starting to factor a rising-rate scenario into their financing models.
• The role of family offices and private investors with their own equity is growing.
• Traditional institutional players, above all German funds, are less active than a few years ago.

How is the Polish commercial real estate market doing?

Poland retains its reputation as one of the most interesting markets in the region. Its strengths are a combination of relative stability, scale and growth potential. In 2026 a major deal closed: part of the Resi4Rent portfolio changed hands for EUR 565 million, confirming real interest from institutional capital in Poland’s residential rental market.

At Mokko Real Estate we see a similar dynamic: investors considering Polish property have become more thorough in analysing the yield and liquidity of assets, but they are not walking away from purchases. Decision horizons have lengthened, yet quality properties in Warsaw and other large cities still attract competitive interest.

What is happening to prices and asset valuations?

The market expects a further gradual correction in property values. The high cost of capital is weighing on asset prices, but this effect is partly offset by rising rents and relatively accessible debt financing. Market participants forecast gradual rather than abrupt changes in valuations — nobody is expecting a crash.

Step by step: making an investment decision in the current conditions

1. Choose the asset class: living, logistics or offices — demand for them differs significantly.
2. Assess the quality of the asset and the stability of rental income — investors pay a premium for the best assets.
3. Calculate the cost of financing, allowing for a possible rising-rate scenario.
4. Compare the expected yield with alternative asset classes that are currently competing for capital.
5. Check market liquidity in the specific city: Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław and Gdańsk behave differently.

According to Deloitte experts, buyers and sellers have not yet reached a real consensus on expected yields — and this is the main brake on the number of closed deals.

What does this situation mean for buyers and investors in Poland?

The commercial real estate market in Poland is not stagnating — it is moving into a more selective mode. Some capital is temporarily “parked” in other assets, but interest in Polish properties remains. Experts expect a high volume of deals in the fourth quarter of 2026 as the parties’ price positions converge.

The Mokko Real Estate team helps clients navigate exactly these conditions: when the market offers opportunities but requires more precise calculations. If you are considering investing in Polish real estate and want to understand the current market situation, contact us for a consultation.

Source: Rzeczpospolita — Nieruchomości.