New-Build Flat Prices in September 2026: Record Sales in Warsaw and Poznań, Prices Unchanged
New-build flat prices in September 2026 remained stable despite a noticeable revival in sales — in the seven largest markets developers sold almost 4,400 units and brought more than 5,600 to market. High demand did not push prices up: competition among offers is too strong. This is good news for buyers in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice — the market still works in their favour. The data comes from the Tabelaofert.pl portal’s barometer.
What the numbers say: sales up for the third month in a row
New-flat sales in September came to almost 4,400 units across the seven markets — about 4% more than in August. Over the whole of Q3 2026 developers sold 12,900 units, up 12.3% on Q2 and almost 11% year on year. Total supply still exceeded 70,000 flats.
Warsaw and Poznań posted record September results. In the capital more than 1,600 units were sold — about 30% more than in August. In Poznań sales rose by 17%, reaching almost 570 flats. At the opposite end was Łódź, where sales fell by 43% and supply grew by 4.2%.
Why are new-build prices not rising despite good sales?
The average asking price of new flats across the seven markets in September was just over PLN 16,200 per sq. m — unchanged from August. Since December 2025 it has risen by a cumulative 3%. According to Tabelaofert.pl analysts, developers are actively replenishing supply in parallel with sales, which keeps the volume of supply high and deprives them of negotiating power over buyers.
A comment from Robert Chojnacki, founder of Tabelaofert.pl, captures the situation well: three months of good sales is already a trend, but not a return to a market in which developers could dictate terms. That is why, despite the noticeable improvement in sales, prices remain stable.
In practice Mokko Real Estate sees the same mechanism: clients looking for flats in Warsaw or Wrocław are less and less often under pressure to decide quickly. A wide choice of offers makes price negotiation a real possibility — especially in the mass-market segment.
How did prices change in individual cities in September 2026?
A stable market-wide average does not mean that all cities behave the same way. Below are the monthly changes (September versus August 2026) and the changes since the start of the year:
| City | Monthly change (September/August) | Change since December 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Wrocław | +0.1% | +5.6% |
| Poznań | +1.1% | +3.1% |
| Warsaw | +0.1% | +3.0% |
| Tri-City | 0% | +3.0% |
| Kraków | -0.3% | +1.8% |
| Łódź | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| Katowice | -0.9% | -1.0% |
Median vs. average — what does a typical flat really cost?
One important conclusion of the barometer concerns the difference between the average price and the median. The median is the value below which half of the offers fall: a figure that reflects the price of a typical flat more accurately because it is not skewed by the most expensive premium projects.
- In Warsaw the median price of new flats in September was about 9% below the average.
- In Kraków the difference was about 7%.
- This means that at least half of the flats on offer in these cities cost less than the headlines about average prices suggest.
This is important information for those who postpone buying because they consider the Warsaw or Kraków market out of reach. When offers in a specific segment and size are examined in more detail, the picture usually turns out to be more optimistic.
How does the mass-market flat price segment work in individual cities?
The mass-market segment — flats meeting the needs of a broad range of buyers — showed exceptional stability in September. In six of the seven cities analysed, monthly price changes did not exceed 0.5%. The exception was Wrocław, where growth was 3.4%, but it was driven by new higher-class projects entering the market rather than by a general upward movement of prices.
In the context of financing a purchase, analysts draw attention to the Rodzinny Kredyt Mieszkaniowy programme: by the end of June 2026 only 21% of the loans issued with a BGK guarantee went to the primary market. The October increase in price limits under this programme should widen the availability of new flats for its participants.
What does this mean for a buyer in Poland?
The situation on the Polish primary market in the second half of 2026 creates conditions that rarely come together: rising demand with stable prices. Developers are selling more, but the high volume of supply does not allow them to return to the pricing strategy of a few years ago.
A well-priced flat in Warsaw, Wrocław or Poznań can go quickly. A unit detached from market reality will wait longer for a buyer. Inflation, the cost of a mortgage and the geopolitical situation play the key role — factors that can change the pace of purchases at any moment.
If you are looking for a new flat in Poland and want an objective assessment of developers’ offers, contact Mokko Real Estate. We help our clients compare asking prices with the market median and choose flats that match their real budget rather than marketing averages.
Source: Rzeczpospolita — Nieruchomości