Warsaw Property Market Review — Q3 2026: Transaction Prices and Trends

National Bank of Poland data for Q3 2026 confirms that Warsaw’s property market is stable, though price growth has clearly decelerated. Sellers are holding firm at record levels while buyers are becoming more selective. Below we analyse the key indicators and trends.

Key fact: Transaction prices on the Warsaw primary market held above PLN 17,000/m² in Q3 2026 — showing resilience despite persistently high interest rates.

Primary market transaction prices

According to NBP data the median transaction price for new flats in Warsaw in Q3 2026 held above PLN 17,000/m². A year earlier (Q3 2025) the figure was around PLN 15,800/m², implying year-on-year growth of approximately 7–8%. The most expensive new stock is in central districts: Śródmieście, Wola (new developments along ul. Towarowa) and Mokotów (Służewiec). The cheapest new projects are in Białołęka, Ursus and the outer fringes of Ursynów.

Secondary market prices

Warsaw’s secondary market in Q3 2026 showed more price flexibility than the primary market. Asking prices were 5–8% above actual transaction prices — buyers were negotiating successfully. The hardest properties to sell were studio flats on the city’s outskirts and large flats (over 100 m²) in older buildings. Properties from the 2010–2020 era in good condition and mid-range sizes (50–70 m²) held their value most firmly.

New supply and developer pipeline

Warsaw developers launched approximately 4,200 new flats for sale in Q3 2026 — 12% fewer than in the same quarter of the previous year. Caution is driven by persistently high construction costs and uncertainty about the pace of interest rate cuts. Several large projects (including Roma Tower and Spektrum Tower II) were pushed back to 2027. Q4 will see new launches in Wilanów, Ursynów and Mokotów.

Demand and time on market

Average time on market for secondary sales rose to around 90 days (vs. 60 days in Q4 2024). Buyers are more demanding and negotiate more frequently. The fastest-selling stock remains 2–3-room flats in the 45–65 m² range priced up to PLN 800,000 with good transport links. Cash investors are active but more cautious than a year ago.

Q4 2026 outlook

Q4 2026 should bring further stabilisation — without sharp moves up or down. Any interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council (expected by the market in H1 2027) would improve sentiment and borrowing capacity. Until then the Warsaw market remains a buyer’s market — negotiation is possible and the choice of properties is broad.