Poland’s Largest Developers 2026: Forbes Ranking, Warsaw and the Tricity Lead the Way

The Forbes ranking of Poland’s largest developers shows that in 2026 the residential market is going through a period of balance it has not seen since the era of cheap money. The combined market value of the 30 largest development companies rose from PLN 47 billion to PLN 64 billion in a year — an increase of more than a third. At the same time, the sector’s total profit remains at around PLN 4 billion: the revaluation came not from a jump in earnings but from a change in how investors perceive the industry.

Key fact: Poland's top 10 developers handed over flats worth PLN 64 billion in 2026 — Warsaw and Tri-City lead the ranking.

What is happening on Poland’s new-build market in 2026?

The first quarter of 2026 delivered a result the market had not seen since the cheap-credit era: on the seven largest markets developers sold around 14,800 flats while launching only around 11,800 units. The second quarter brought an 8.4% drop in sales — to just over 11,800 flats — but that is still 12.7% better than a year earlier. In the first seven months of the year developers sold 15% more flats than they brought to market.

It is this arithmetic that changed how the industry is perceived. A year ago the main problem was a growing overhang of supply that forced developers to offer discounts and squeezed margins. Today the balance of supply and demand works in developers’ favour — though without licence for excess: at the end of June supply again approached 70,000 units.

How has demand changed: the role of mortgage lending

The key driver of the recovery has been the return of mortgage lending. With the NBP reference rate at 3.75%, mortgage lending in July reached PLN 14.78 billion — 45.3% more than a year earlier. This is not a return to the record-cheap years, but it is enough of a boost to bring back buyers who had previously hit the ceiling of their creditworthiness.

According to Forbes.pl, at Develia the share of purchases financed with a loan reached about 55% of transactions, compared with less than 50% before rates were cut. The buyer profile has shifted: fewer cash investors looking for small units, more people buying a home for themselves.

• NBP reference rate: 3.75%
• Mortgage lending in July: PLN 14.78 billion (up 45.3% year on year)
• Sales in the first 7 months: exceeded new launches by 15%
• Value of the top 30 developers: PLN 64 billion (up from PLN 47 billion)
• Completed unsold flats: more than 16,600 (up 19.1%)

Warsaw and the Tricity are in a league of their own: how do the cities differ?

The Polish market is increasingly splitting into several segments driven by different mechanisms. According to Forbes.pl, Warsaw and the Tricity show a slight shortage of supply. In Wrocław, Kraków and Poznań supply still exceeds demand. Łódź and Katowice are in the toughest position: at the current pace of sales it would take 2.5 and 3 years respectively to sell all the stock available there.

The average asking price in Warsaw is around PLN 20,000 per sq m. Łódź remains the most affordable market at PLN 11,300 per sq m. Price growth above inflation was recorded only in Warsaw and Poznań. According to JLL analysts, discounts from list prices will continue until the end of the year.

In our work at Mokko Real Estate we regularly see how the fundamentally different character of markets in different cities shapes the entry strategy: what works in Warsaw or Gdańsk needs a different approach in Wrocław or Łódź. Understanding the local context is part of basic professional work.

What did the end of Lex Deweloper and the planning reform change?

On 1 September a new regulatory constraint appeared over the market. On that day the deadline expired for new applications under the special Lex Deweloper act, in force since 2018. The act allowed developers to ask the municipal council for consent to a specific project even where there was no local zoning plan. This mechanism opened the way to investments with a potential of more than 100,000 flats — a volume comparable to almost a year’s worth of new construction starts nationwide.

The end of Lex Deweloper coincides with the planning reform: without an adopted general plan, a municipality can neither adopt a new zoning plan, amend an existing one, nor issue a decision on development conditions. Procedures already under way will be completed under the old rules, but in two to three years the market will feel how much the new rules limit the supply of building plots. Put simply, the future supply of housing may come to depend not on developers’ appetite for risk, but on the meeting schedule of city councils.

Step by step: how to assess a specific market before buying

1. Establish the ratio of supply to demand in the specific city — JLL and local analysts update their data every quarter.
2. Check year-on-year price dynamics: growth above inflation signals a strong market.
3. Find out how long it would take to sell the current supply — under 12 months means a shortage, over 24 means oversupply.
4. Assess mortgage availability: at the current NBP rate, check banks’ current offers and your own creditworthiness.
5. Study the regulatory context: whether a local zoning plan exists affects how long a specific project will take to obtain permits.

In our experience at Mokko Real Estate, it is the fifth point — the regulatory status of the plot — that is most often overlooked when analysing development projects. Since the legislation changed, this factor has become crucial in assessing the timeline and risks of a specific investment.

According to Forbes.pl, JLL experts expect the current relative stability to continue, provided no new destabilising factors appear. The industry’s key task is to patiently align new supply with demand in each individual market.

If you are considering buying a flat from a developer in Poland or investing in the primary market, the Mokko Real Estate team is ready to help you understand the current situation in a specific city and find the right property. Contact us for a consultation.