Polish Housing Market 2027: The Window of Opportunity Is Closing — JLL Forecast
Poland’s housing market is going through a turning point. According to JLL analysts, developers in the country’s seven largest cities — including Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk and Poznań — will sell about 50,000 flats in 2026, several dozen percent more than a year earlier. But in 2027 sales growth should not be expected: in the optimistic scenario the market will stabilise or dip slightly.
Kazimierz Kirejczyk, senior strategic adviser at JLL, described the current situation as a “buyers’ window” — a short period of favourable conditions that is now slowly closing. That is important for everyone facing a purchase decision today.
Why is this considered a “window of opportunity” in the housing market?
Until recently, a number of factors supported demand for flats in Poland. Housing affordability has risen in recent years — measured against the average salary, a Polish buyer could afford more square metres. Consumer sentiment was improving and interest in mortgages was growing.
The situation has begun to change. These are the main pressures on the market named by JLL analysts:
- Expectations of interest rate cuts have not materialised
- Concerns about accelerating inflation are growing
- Poland’s state budget is under pressure — no new mortgage subsidy programmes should be expected
- An election year creates political uncertainty
- Geopolitical risks: the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East affect raw material costs
- Discussions about a possible introduction of a property tax (similar to a cadastral tax)
In our experience at Mokko Real Estate, it is the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and interest rate expectations that changes buyer behaviour most: people who were ready to buy just a few months ago take a pause and wait — sometimes indefinitely.
What is the real balance of supply and demand in Polish cities?
At the end of September 2026, more than 70,000 flats were on offer in the seven largest markets — a historically high level. The situation differs significantly from city to city. JLL analysts estimate the rate at which supply is absorbed — how many quarters it would take to sell the entire available stock at the current pace of sales:
| City | Time to sell current supply (quarters) | Balance assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Warsaw | 4.3 | Balanced |
| Gdańsk (Tri-City) | 4.6 | Balanced |
| Wrocław | about 6 | Moderate oversupply |
| Poznań | about 6 | Moderate oversupply |
| Kraków | about 6 | Moderate oversupply |
| Łódź | 8.4 | Significant oversupply |
| Katowice | 11.7 | Substantial oversupply |
For reference: a figure of about 5 quarters is considered normal — at that level supply and demand are balanced.
What does the growing share of completed flats in supply mean?
JLL analysts recorded a historically high share of completed flats in total supply — about 25%. Across cities the spread is wide: from 12% in the Tri-City to 38% in Katowice and 33% in Łódź.
In Kirejczyk’s view, this is not a catastrophe but a temporary phenomenon. Some projects were launched in 2023–2024 on the wave of the “Safe Credit” programme and expectations of a new subsidised 0% mortgage — which was never introduced. These flats will gradually be sold, some at zero margin for the developer. At the same time, off-plan flats in a number of projects are still selling well.
In Mokko Real Estate’s practice we see that a large number of completed flats creates real negotiating opportunities for buyers: developers are more willing to offer discounts and additional terms on properties that have already been commissioned.
Should a new mortgage subsidy programme be expected?
According to JLL, housing is unlikely to become the main theme of the election campaign in Poland. The state’s tight budget leaves little room for large-scale subsidy programmes. Defence and security will remain the main topics of political debate. Of the housing issues, only property taxation may come up.
If you are considering buying a flat in Poland and want an up-to-date picture for a specific city and segment, the Mokko Real Estate team is ready to provide a detailed consultation and help you find a property that fits the current state of the market.
Source: Rzeczpospolita — Nieruchomości.